The federal government is gearing up to unveil its annual economic performance report for FY2024-25 on June 9, painting a mixed picture of progress and shortfalls.
While several sectors lagged behind expectations, officials describe the overall trend as a mild improvement over last year’s outcomes.
Pakistan’s GDP growth fell short of the 3.6% target, landing at 2.7% by fiscal year-end. Yet, a significant positive came from inflation, which was sharply lower than anticipated—clocking in at just 5% against the 12% annual target, suggesting some economic stability amid broader global uncertainties.
The per capita income was calculated at Rs509,174, missing the target mark of Rs543,968 by nearly Rs35,000.
However, tax revenue—particularly from indirect sources—surpassed estimates. Collections amounted to Rs8,393 billion, exceeding the Rs7,799 billion goal.
Agricultural performance remained underwhelming, growing by only 0.6% compared to the 2% benchmark. Major crops recorded notable declines:
Cotton: down 30.7%
Maize: down 15.4%
Sugarcane: down 3.9%
Rice: down 1.4%
Wheat: down 8.9%
In contrast, the segment of minor crops outperformed expectations, with a 4.8% rise versus the 4.3% goal, bolstered by growth in vegetables, fruits, oilseeds, spices, and fodder.
The industrial sector fared slightly better, growing at 4.8%, just ahead of its 4.4% projection. Sectors like textiles, automobiles, garments, and petroleum contributed positively. Still, downturns were observed in food production, chemicals, steel, and electronics.
Large-scale manufacturing fell by 1.5%, failing to meet its 3.5% growth goal, whereas small-scale industries delivered an 8.8% rise, exceeding expectations.
The service industry couldn’t meet its target of 4.1%, closing the year at 2.9%. Meanwhile, the construction sector saw a strong performance, expanding by 6.6% against the projected 5.5%.
A standout achievement came from the utilities sector (electricity, gas, and water), which surged by a striking 28.9%, far beyond its modest 2.5% target.
The education sector reported a 4.4% growth (target: 3.5%), while healthcare saw a 3.7% increase (target: 3.2%). Private lending activity also surged, with credit volumes climbing from PKR 294 billion to PKR 870 billion over the year.
Pakistan’s total revenues grew by 36.7%, reaching Rs13,367 billion. Additionally, the tax-to-GDP ratio made a meaningful leap from 6% to 8%, reflecting improved fiscal discipline.
This annual economic assessment serves as a pre-budget review, offering insights into national financial health and highlighting areas of growth and concern across the economy.
