India election 2024 is over and the final results have been announced. The poll outcome revealed has surprising trends and changes in the political spectrum of India.
It reflects what agenda is being rejected and what is flourishing. It communicates what the common public has bought and what it has discredited.
The polarized Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi of the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) has won this election making dependency on others and a decreased popularity of his agenda.
He is likely to hold the highest executive office of India for the third consecutive term, but it will not happen this time without the support of his alliance partners. This happened first to Modi otherwise he has been the sole runner previously.
Modi was expecting a landslide sweep but the National Congress surprised him by winning 47 more seats than in the previous election. His Hindu nationalist party – BJP – in its first term in 2024 secured a large majority with 303 seats. Of these seats, the BJP lost 21 in 2019 after it won 282. Now in this election, BJP secured 240 seats and stands at a loss of 63 seats in total when compared to the results in 2014.
After this election Modi heavily depends on coalition parties to form a new government, there also exist the possibilities that Congress may shock him more than the election results when this government is formed. The BJP’s success with decreased popularity in this election indicates a rejection or resistance by the common people to the BJP’s economic and Hindu nationalist agenda. It shows that secularism in India still exists and may replace the hard line of this party in the future. It proved a major gain for Congress.
New trends and challenges
Congress secured 99 seats and with 47 more than in the previous polls. Congress considers whether to form a government supported by its allied partners or to sit in the opposition. Whatever Congress decides, it will be challenging for Mr. Modi, both in case of forming his government or face opposition in the Lower House. The surprising element in this election is that none of the political parties gained simple majority and cannot single handedly form its government. They need partners support or coalition to reach to the simple majority number 272 out of total 543 in this House – Lok Sabha. Over 630 million people voted for the candidates of different parties, mainly for the Congress-led INDIA bloc and BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA). The NDA secured a total of 294 seats while the Congress lead INDIA bloc won 232 seats in total. The Telugu Desam Party (TDP) and Bihar-based JDU in this election emerged as the main power brokers as they bagged 16 and 12 seats in this election. These 28 Lok Sabha seats and others traditionally belong to the NDA. Now some analysts predict their new political alignment because Congress has also hinted that it could contact both parties in forming its government.
The BJP faced a major setback in three main states including UP and Rajasthan where Congress stood victorious. In this poll Samajwadi Party secured 37, All India Trinamool Congress 29, Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam 22, Janata Dal (United) 12, Rashtriya Janata Dal 4, Yuvajana Sramika Rythu Congress Party 4, and Aam Aadmi Party secured 3 seats. Viewing the previous results, in this election, Samajwadi Party gained 32, All India Trinamool Congress gained 7, Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam lost 2, Janata Dal (United) lost 4, Rashtriya Janata Dal gained 4, Yuvajana Sramika Rythu Congress Party lost 18 and Aam Aadmi Party gained 2 more seats. Samajwadi Party won 37 seats in northern Uttar Pradesh state and caused a major setback to the BJP. The BJP now is dependent on its allies, which obviously makes them crucial.
What election is to Indians
The Indian Express daily published an article of a renowned political commentator Pratap Bhanu Mehta which truly reflects the position of the BJP. It said, “At the very least, the result pricks the bubble of PM Modi’s authority. He made this election about himself. Today, he is just another politician, cut to size by the people.”
Nearly 640 million votes cast their vote in this election and counting began on Tuesday. Congress’ supporters are cheering as their party proved significant success than in the past. Indian Lok Sabha consists of 543 members at present. The Indian Constitution allows for a maximum of 550 members in this House, with 530 members representing the States and 20 representing the Union Territories. Following the Constitution 84th Amendment Act, the total number of existing seats in this House assigned to individual states based on the 1971 census and it would stay same until the next census in 2026.
The general elections are the biggest democratic event in any country or state when citizens vote to elect members of their choice. They are held every 5 years in India. This election plays a vital role in shaping the future of the country when the composition of the central government and its policies are determined. Despite Modi faced a setback, he promises to make India good. He pledges to turn India’s economy into the third biggest. Will Modi move forward from his fifth based policies and turn India equal for all? The answer to this question reveals that it may not happen if he serves the country for third time.
He said he would advance India’s defense production, boost jobs for youth, raise exports and help farmers, among other things. “This country will see a new chapter of big decisions. This is Modi’s guarantee,” he said. The analysts are of the opinion that that many of the Hindu nationalist policies that Modi flourished over the past 10 years will remain unchanged. Modi’s win is likely proved that he meets the record of the secular India’s PM Jawaharlal Nehru. Before Modi came to power, India had coalition governments for 30 years and now again there will be a coalition government. Regional leaders are congratulating him while the United States of America commended India for its vibrant democratic process. Rahul Gandhi of the Congress, the main face of the opposition, said he saw the election numbers as a message from the people. “The poorest of this country have defended the constitution of India,” he told a news conference. He said that Congress is likely to meet with the partners to discuss to form government.
Modi’s past and new challenges
What Modi will do in his expected third tenure towards equality is a question that gets answer when looked in his past 10 years power. He transformed India’s political landscape, bringing Hindu nationalism that once has been a fringe ideology in India. His policies left the country deeply divided. His opponents are of the opinion that his Hindu-first politics largely intolerance in India. In their view India one of the world’s fastest-growing, has become more unequal. A resident of the northern city of Lucknow – Payal – was reported saying the election was about the economy and India’s vast number of people living in poverty. “People are suffering, there are no jobs, people are in such a state that their kids are compelled to make and sell tea on roads,” he said adding “This is a big deal for us. If we don’t wake up now, when will we?”
In his tenure youth unemployment soared with only a small portion of Indians benefitting from the boom. As these polls began Modi was founding guaranteeing the economic and welfare achievements. His campaigns turned piercing to Muslims, who make up 14% of the Indian population. The opposition INDIA alliance attacked Modi over his extremist politics and campaigned on issues like joblessness, inflation and inequality. The results of this election also marked those issues resounded and damaged the BJP.
Democracy to Modi has a strengthening of Hindu nationalist approach in India. Both of his previous tenures showed that none in Indian history advanced this ideology than Mr. Modi. He joined the pro-Hindu Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) in early 1970. He joined the BJP in 1987. His first political break was in 2001 when was elected as chief minister (CM) of Gujarat. Right from the beginning of this political post he emerged as a controversial figure and was given the title “Butcher of Gujrat.” He was considered responsible for the 2002 Gujarat riots that reportedly took 2,000 lives and majorly of them were Muslims.
He introduced controversial laws and revoked the special status of Jammu and Kashmir while putting aside all resolutions of the United Nations. He launched an airstrike against Pakistan alleging here a terrorist camp, but failed and lost. He introduced the Citizenship Amendment Act, which resulted to Delhi riots in 2020 in which Muslims were brutalized and killed by Hindu mobs. He deprived Jammu and Kashmir’s residents of self-determination. Killing of Sikh community and even their leaders is also on his credit.
His government took measures broadly appealing to Hindus such attempting to ban cow slaughtering. He fulfilled a log-time promise of the BJP to replace Babri mosque with Ram Mandir. Under his tenure India experienced the weakening of democratic institutions, individual rights, and freedom of expression. He captured the national educational system to wipe out the Gandhi and Nehru remains of secularism. What new he will bring for religious minorities, jobless and for the common men will be awaited. Hopley, the message is communicated following the changing trends that what more is asked in India. How Mr. Modi and his party take this is up to them, but it can be more politically damaging if not addressed.
(Senior journalist Rana Kashif is the author of this opinion article)
