This year’s monsoon season will likely start earlier than normal and with more intense rain showers, the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) told the Senate Standing Committee on Climate Change in a briefing on Wednesday.
During the visit of the committee to NDMA offices, NDMA Chairman Lt Gen Inam Haider Malik cautioned that the monsoon could start between June 26–27, approximately three to four days early, compared to its usual onset.
The NDMA expects nationwide rainfall to exceed normal levels by up to 5%, with northeastern Punjab likely to see a 50% increase.
Senator Sherry Rehman subsequently presided over a Senate Standing Committee session, expressing concern over abnormal weather patterns and their long-term effects.
The NDMA chairman apprised the members of major monsoon and temperature predictions made with the basis of 30 years of climate data.
Punjab generally gets 344mm of rain during the monsoon. This time it might get about 388mm,” he added. Gujranwala, Lahore, Sialkot, and Narowal cities are forecast to get a maximum of 380mm of rainfall.
Glacier Melting, Heatwaves, and Regional Rainfall Patterns Raise Alarms
According to that, rainfall in KP could increase from the average 243mm to almost 300mm with the south of KP receiving usual or above usual rainfall. Southern Punjab would also witness an increase.
But northern KP and Balochistan will get less-than-normal precipitation, with temperatures expected to be above normal. Azad Kashmir will receive more rain, the chairman of the NDMA informed.
There will be a temperature difference of 2-3 degrees in Punjab. In Sindh, temperatures are likely to increase by 2.5°C above normal, whereas south Punjab and Sindh can see an increase of 4–5°C, possibly leading to heatwave-like conditions.
In KP, he added, a 1.5-degree variation is predicted, with an increased rain in monsoon. But the rainfall will reduce in Chitral and KP affected by glaciers, he stated.
The NDMA also issued a warning of additional cloudbursts and possible flooding, especially in glacial areas. “Accelerated glacier melting due to high temperatures may cause floods in Gilgit-Baltistan, KP, and Azad Kashmir,” the chairman highlighted.
He supplemented that after the initial phase of flooding; a possible water deficit might arise when glacier stockpiles dwindle faster than anticipated.
