According to data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) Pakistan has experienced a fall to 3.2 percent in June 2025 compared to 3.5 percent in May and 12.6 percent in the same month in 2024.
In FY25, average headline inflation was at 4.49 percent, which was significantly lower compared to 23.41 percent in FY24. Arif Habib Limited said that it is the lowest average inflation of nine years now, since the FY16 when it stood at 2.9%.
The brokerage firm attributed the decline to high base effect, falling food prices, and declining transportation expenses at the back of declining costs of fuel.
Breakdown of Inflation Indicators:
- The Urban CPI Inflation (YoY) slowed to 3.0 in June, as against 3.5 in May and 14.9 in June last year.
- Urban CPI (MoM) remained unchanged at 0.1%, showing stability.
- Inflation (YoY) of Rural CPI in slightly rose to 3.6 per cent in June as compared to 3.4 per cent in May, a decrease compared to the same period last year of 9.3 per cent.
- CPI (MoM) in the rural area increased to 0.5 percent as opposed to the 0.5 percent decrease the month before.
- The SPI Inflation (YoY) is decreasing in June by 1.9 percent compared to the decrease in May which is by 0.6 and last June was by 16.6 percent.
- No change was recorded in SPI (MoM) after the previous month it posted a 1.0% decline.
- WPI Inflation (YoY) and WPI (MoM) increased by 0.6 per cent and 0.4 per cent respectively as compared to 0.4 per cent and 0.2 per cent in May and this shows a modest rise in inflation pressure in the wholesale markets.
Overall:
The newest data indicates the weakening of the inflationary pressure both in consumer and wholesale indices and improved stability in pricing due to fuel and food prices depreciation.
