Several recently conducted pools by credible and independent analysts indicate that both President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump are standing neck and neck for the upcoming US elections.
This 60th presidential election is just five months away this year.
In these national polls sitting President Joe Biden of the Democrats is hoping for the next term, Donald Trump of the Republicans is running for a second non-consecutive term after losing in 2020, and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is an independent candidate.
The voters will elect the president and vice president for four years while the winner will be inaugurated on January 20, 2025.
There are 538 members of the Electoral College while 270 electoral votes are needed to win.
While Mr. Biden and Trump are being reported in a neck-and-neck contest, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is also reported to have emerged as a major third-party contestants.
So far, a wide array of poll results recently conducted by credible and independent organizations and analysts within the US show Biden running best among Americans consistently voting in this country’s elections while Donald Trump displays the most strength among the people who have been the least likely to vote.
Results from the three most recent national NBC polls, conducted by a bipartisan team of prominent Democratic and Republican pollsters are reported to have found that Biden leads Trump by 4 percentage points among people who voted in 2020 and 2022. Trump leads Biden by 12 points among those who voted in 2020. This lead goes to 20 percentage points among those who didn’t vote in 2020 and 2022.
The New York Times-Siena College polls found Biden narrowly leading among latent 2024 voters who turned out in 2020 and Trump by double digits among those who didn’t vote in this previous election. Strong reasons are said to be available that show Trump may benefit more even from a large overall turnout this year. His winning chance will increase if irregular voters, working class, and minorities come out.
Biden holds a better share of white voters in 2020 than the non-white. His strength among seniors and educated white voters is good that, in fact, reflects his support from the two reliable voting blocs. According to William Frey’s census data in 2020, about 75% of people older than 65 voted for Joe Biden.Republicans are said to believe that even if Trump doesn’t catch many irregularly voting non-white communities, he will still benefit if they drift toward third-party candidates or even if they choose not to vote.
For Republicans, important is to find ways to organize the irregular Black and Latino voters who according to the surveys are showing openness to Trump. Republicans don’t have much history of catching those voters. A challenge that the Republicans are being reported to face is the funds for campaigning when Trump’s large amounts of his fundraising are going for his legal defense in some cases. Biden and Donald Trump’s campaigns are said to court Black voters by accusing each other of being racist. Political analysts say that divergence between high and low-frequency voters is appearing consistently in polls now, but it is too early to say for certain whether it will persist through election in November.
However, irregular voters, particularly younger Blacks and Latinos, polling turnout, lobbying on catching swinging states, and anti-Israel sentiments are thought to play a decisive role in the success or defeat of the major contestants. Trump’s appeal to irregular voters, particularly younger Black and Latino, is compelling Democrats to rethink longstanding strategies. Abortion, immigration, healthcare, education, the economy, foreign policy, border security, LGBT rights, climate change, democracy, and the Israel-Gaza war are emerging as the leading campaign issues in this US election. A fight on swinging states will matter.
(Senior journalist Rana Kashif has authored this article)
